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Arvind Kejriwal and AAP (Page 89)

BirdieNumNum Goldie
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Posted: 02 May 2014 at 12:53pm | IP Logged
Originally posted by charminggenie


AAP seemed right on intentions, the CAG audit, even the subsidy and the refusal for FDP in retail seemed like sensible decisions, but it missed the mark with its mis-management of Bharti incident, few theatrical gimmicks like having open darbars , also the whole resignation drama was unnecessary even AK has acknowledged that personally. At the end , AAP's good decisions were overshadowed by their over-zealous not required actions. What was the point AK trying to make by facing NaMo in varanasi, he is currently the 3rd popular leader there, thats not saying much?

If it can get around 10 seats and gets majority seats in Delhi Assembly , it has a good chance of surviving and potentially provide an alternative some 10 years down the line , otherwise it would perhaps vanish even before the next LS polls. This party banks heavily on social media influence, it doesn't have a ground presence, in a situation where it fails to post success , it is very likely to crumble. A Delhi based regional party might have less influence compared to SP/BSP and less survival chances than a MNS.


@Skep - I doubt anyone can deny AAP's popularity .Good example of PPP , you mentioned, I would throw even a much organized MNS to the fray  but unlike them AAP is trying to project as an alternative at the National level , therein likes the flaw.  
Btw who do you think would win Chandigarh, also I feel Jaitley might face defeat from the Captain.

good post Charmin' and i agree with you on AAP. A couple of points-

first, i dont believe that AAP has been totally honest about things... Kejriwal's statement that he saw no progress in Gujarat was totally dishonest. His fight against Modi in Varanasi is dishonest to his stated aim of rooting out corruption. If there's one thing folks should agree on, it is that Modi has been either totally corruption free or one of the least corrupt politicians in India. For a CM who has ruled for 12 years, there's no whiff of corruption scandal against him. 

now take crazy-wal's other charge of crony capitalism in reference to Modi/ Adani. Again, either crazywal is dishonest or totally misguided. Adani was buying land in barren deserted areas when it was not fashionable to. He built india's biggest port, a huge electricity plant out of that. Unlike politicians who scam and stash their loot in foreign countries (where we derive no benefits), in Adani's case, we have consumers today who get electricity... I feel dishonest people like crazywal and gandhis will criticize no matter what. If people dont have enough electricity, that's a crime. If people get electricity, then Modi must have taken land from farmers. That's a crime. Worse, the environmentalists will come along and say that the power plants are polluting, so that's a crime too. Is it any wonder we dont progress? Kejriwal is another bozo who adds to this dishonest line of scumbagging.

second thing is Vadra is a case of inside dealing. He bought land that was going to be rezoned. I mean how lucky! Unlike Adani, the country derived zero benefits from his scamming. That's a huge difference that no one seems to be talking about compared to Adani.

the other thing about kejriwal is his total inability to prioritize. That's one the key traits a CEO/ Executive/ manager/ President/ PM should have. In the scheme of things, its the Vadras of the world that he should have gone after. That's where his priorities should have been. Instead, he chose to play it politically safe and cute by also going after BJP/ Gadkari. Turns out that Manish tewai of Congress has withdrawn his accusations against Gadkari. 

lastly, how about electing my Hindi teacher as the PM? I can assure you we'd be hard-pressed to find another who'd be as ethical and straight as him. But governing would be abother matter. Deal, anyone?


ps- what do you think of NDA's chances in Bihar. Some reports seem to suggest that NDA will do very poorly there. Seems to be the same age-old caste/ minority nonsense.

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charminggenie

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Posted: 02 May 2014 at 2:01pm | IP Logged
Compliment coming from you , Mr Bird, Muchas Gracias
Will just add couple of pointers to your AAP analysis - What exactly was the reason for fielding AK against NaMo in Varanasi, I think this move too backfired on him . 
After defeat would he come back to Delhi and how would he explain all his hopping around?
 Their campaign might not be as tainted as others but they also have played it dirty. Will AK accept JD(U)'s support in Varanasi?


Now to Bihar, think krystal asked me this a while back. 

Total 40 , 2009 - BJP-12, JD(U)- 20 with Lalu getting 6. 

This time with Nitish breaking away from NDA, I think his party is going to be sidelined to the 3rd position. RJD is rather than affecting BJP much is going to break JD(U) vote-bank.  JD(U), RJD and Paswan all cater to the same voting segment, hence there will be a good chance of them cutting each other's vote and BJP might sneak away with few .
2 more voting phases are still to happen and if reports are to be believed Modi is concentrating and returning back to Bihar. 

I see BJP getting anything around 20 and RJD doubling it's previous tally. The biggest loss would be of JD(U). Paswan is going to play the role of party-popper for UPA, if he wins 3-4 seats, more power to NDA. 


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BirdieNumNum

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Posted: 02 May 2014 at 2:09pm | IP Logged
Also , on AAP I feel they would have gained much more had AK been a sitting Delhi CM. Atleast that would have ensured a strong show in Delhi , North India and metros.

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atominis

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Posted: 02 May 2014 at 2:16pm | IP Logged
^ i am not sure RJD and Paswan cater to the same crowd. I believe they are two separate blocs, with the Yadavs outnumbering the Paswans. The muslims are also flocking to congress-RJD, with JDU at best tied with NDA if not behind... If this is the case, then RJD-Congress might end up with 20+ seats with the rest split between BJP and JDU. Even if BJP gets 15 of these seats, they'd be starting 17 seats behind where the NDA was last time. That's a very heavy ask if you look at how much ground the NDA has to cover elsewhere to make the deficit from 159 last time all the way to 272. I have a bad feeling about Bihar. Some states are bimaru for a reason- they keep electing the same idiots... and i think lalu might be making a strong comeback. Bengal's the same way. Between the Commies and Mamtas, they are basically bankrupt... it's the choices their citzens made, but now they want money from the centre to be bailed out. If Bihar votes the way i think they will, they deserve every bit of the fodder crap Lalu will give them... 

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charminggenie

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Posted: 02 May 2014 at 3:13pm | IP Logged
Originally posted by BirdieNumNum

^ i am not sure RJD and Paswan cater to the same crowd. I believe they are two separate blocs, with the Yadavs outnumbering the Paswans. The muslims are also flocking to congress-RJD, with JDU at best tied with NDA if not behind... If this is the case, then RJD-Congress might end up with 20+ seats with the rest split between BJP and JDU. Even if BJP gets 15 of these seats, they'd be starting 17 seats behind where the NDA was last time. That's a very heavy ask if you look at how much ground the NDA has to cover elsewhere to make the deficit from 159 last time all the way to 272. I have a bad feeling about Bihar. Some states are bimaru for a reason- they keep electing the same idiots... and i think lalu might be making a strong comeback. Bengal's the same way. Between the Commies and Mamtas, they are basically bankrupt... it's the choices their citzens made, but now they want money from the centre to be bailed out. If Bihar votes the way i think they will, they deserve every bit of the fodder crap Lalu will give them... 

My mistake , RJD and Paswan cater to two different sectors. But his son and he will gain atleast 2-3 seats. Cong won't get any. 

We differ on JD(U), they won't get seats in double figure my guess. Him being part of NDA won't have made a difference, Nitish with Modi would have reduced their Muslim vote and him being away has pushed Lalu ahead. So the only two parties gaining are BJP and RJD. 

BJP has been pretty smart by not having a big alliance , hence focusing on improving their tally, I think they will get 20 odd seats which is a happy thing, considering they would have improved from their 14% vote share. 

Minority and Muslim votes were never going to be with BJP , so doesn't matter.

@On another note, how is Lalu allowed to campaign , isn't he serving a sentence, some EC we have?
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Posted: 02 May 2014 at 6:39pm | IP Logged
Originally posted by charminggenie

Compliment coming from you , Mr Bird, Muchas Gracias
Will just add couple of pointers to your AAP analysis - What exactly was the reason for fielding AK against NaMo in Varanasi, I think this move too backfired on him . 
After defeat would he come back to Delhi and how would he explain all his hopping around?
 Their campaign might not be as tainted as others but they also have played it dirty. Will AK accept JD(U)'s support in Varanasi?


Now to Bihar, think krystal asked me this a while back. 

Total 40 , 2009 - BJP-12, JD(U)- 20 with Lalu getting 6. 

This time with Nitish breaking away from NDA, I think his party is going to be sidelined to the 3rd position. RJD is rather than affecting BJP much is going to break JD(U) vote-bank.  JD(U), RJD and Paswan all cater to the same voting segment, hence there will be a good chance of them cutting each other's vote and BJP might sneak away with few .
2 more voting phases are still to happen and if reports are to be believed Modi is concentrating and returning back to Bihar. 

I see BJP getting anything around 20 and RJD doubling it's previous tally. The biggest loss would be of JD(U). Paswan is going to play the role of party-popper for UPA, if he wins 3-4 seats, more power to NDA. 




for some reason, I think people are fed up with both lalu and nitish and want modi. I think nitish will cut into the vote base of jdu but only by so much, given he's a criminal and sympathy can get you only so much. modi is probably going to get 25 - 27, mark my words! dunno why im making such a bold prediction, but thats my opinion. this is balanced out by my less than optimistic UP prediction, people are saying 42 - 50 for bjp, im saying they wont cross 36! most likely 28 - 34 Smile

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Proud-India

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Posted: 02 May 2014 at 6:40pm | IP Logged
Originally posted by zorrro

Its strange that people should threaten the AAP supporters in Punjab if he is not seen as a serious contender
 
 


but based on ground reports AAP is doing well in punjab? also jaitley will lose. I am happy because jaitley and sushma only prevented subramanian swamy from getting the new delhi seat Big smile
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Posted: 02 May 2014 at 6:43pm | IP Logged
Originally posted by atominis

The record turnout in Punjab is due to what? I think AAP has definitely made an impact even though its chances of winning seats are less.



they might win 1 or 2 in punjab, 1 or 2 in delhi, 1 in bangalore and 1 in UP. they will cut urban votes of congress more. they will help bjp get extra 5 - 10 seats Smile

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