Debate Mansion

India-Forums

   
Debate Mansion
Debate Mansion

Arvind Kejriwal and AAP (Page 25)

return_to_hades IF-Sizzlerz
return_to_hades
return_to_hades

Joined: 18 January 2006
Posts: 24749

Posted: 02 February 2014 at 7:31pm | IP Logged
Originally posted by LovelyPlanet

how does it matter whether or not someone gets Visa to US?


For ordinary people it doesn't matter. However, for someone who is a leader of the world's largest democracy who welcomes them and who they get treated is important. I'm sure when Modi is elected Indians will be concerned with his ability to travel the world freely and build bilateral ties as he deems beneficial to the nation. It would be awkward if nations rejected Modi.

The following 1 member(s) liked the above post:

LovelyPlanet

ScorpionGunner IF-Sizzlerz
ScorpionGunner
ScorpionGunner

Joined: 13 December 2012
Posts: 19380

Posted: 02 February 2014 at 10:22pm | IP Logged

The following 2 member(s) liked the above post:

LovelyPlanetmr.ass

mr.ass IF-Rockerz
mr.ass
mr.ass

Joined: 27 October 2008
Posts: 9469

Posted: 03 February 2014 at 1:06am | IP Logged
Originally posted by return_to_hades

Originally posted by LovelyPlanet

how does it matter whether or not someone gets Visa to US?


For ordinary people it doesn't matter. However, for someone who is a leader of the world's largest democracy who welcomes them and who they get treated is important. I'm sure when Modi is elected Indians will be concerned with his ability to travel the world freely and build bilateral ties as he deems beneficial to the nation. It would be awkward if nations rejected Modi.


lol he'll get a visa automatically after he becomes pm, I read it in the news

The following 1 member(s) liked the above post:

LovelyPlanet

charminggenie IF-Stunnerz
charminggenie
charminggenie

Joined: 28 December 2007
Posts: 27506

Posted: 03 February 2014 at 3:46am | IP Logged
Originally posted by BirdieNumNum



i think we are just throwing around numbers like 220 for BJP. It's on the higher side of opinion polls that were out recently. Also it assumes only 11 seats for AAP, and a low number for Congress. Yes, congress will get few takers, but it will get at least those 80 or so seats that are being projected. The have organization in states where no one else is competitive. Bottom-line, BJP/ NDA will have to get almost 150 seats they did not get last time. They'll have to sweep all the states they are competitive in to do that...

also, if NDA will have to rely on the likes of Jayalitha to see them through, then it's bad. It would be much better if those seats came from others directly to BJP, even from AAP. Country would be better off having a strong leader who is not hamstrung by corrupt alliance partners. AAP should focus more on getting its act together in Delhi and building on from there for the next time.

from latest reports, it seems jayalitha is teaming up with CPI. I mean what an absurd combination of ideologies. They are talking of bring peace and growth. Now when is the last time the commies brought about any growth with them? They ran bengal into the ground. Kolkata was quite the industrial center for India till the Basus oversaw their decline. Other commies elsewhere in the world too have bankrupted their economies (the former east bloc). Are we sure we want our central government to rely on partners who could even flirt with that stupid ideology? 

other than the issue of corruption which kejriwal brings out of the proverbial hat whenever he is in trouble, they dont have anything in the way of policies. You ask us to be patient. But someone who has been a civil servant career all these years and who still does not have ideas of his own, a vision of his own, what good is that? The guy did not even have the foggiest notion as to how to reply to the pakistani journalists... and we want this guy to grow into the job at such a critical juncture for india? Terrible idea.
[/QUOTE]

Mr Bird,

Last LS poll sin 2009, Cong on its own got around 206 seats and BJP was stuck with 116. Now 5 years after I see this swapping, if the anti incumbency of UPA is to be accounted for. With the lack of real opposition to UPA the only alternative is BJP. 

Considering BJP has won recent polls in all the main states with considerable seats and UPA  receiving drubbing , I don't see it to far fetched that 220 is unattainable for BJP , even if you play on the safe side 200 is their number.  Anything + on 200, would be the real evidence of any Modi wave.

Now, as much as I want to idealistic and wishful, in the present political context, there is no chance a party can get full majority on its own due to the proliferation of various regional parties so as sad it is  coalition govt is here to stay. As honest Modi can be, we cannot say that his partymen or his current alliances are non-corrupt, we are making the deal with the lesser evil ,here , so why art we bothered about Jaya, she will need Modi as much as the vice versa.

AAP is delhi centric, but for nay political party to have a survival or a long term existence , they need to capture few LS polls for being relevant. So to them , garnering attention and fighting LS polls is a way to safeguard their future. Let them be, they are eating UPA's share anyway, which were non- BJP from get go.

CPI , who? Sorry, they have been irrelavant since 2009.Last time combined seats were 30, I doubt they will be able to get that number even now. If the news shows are an indicator, CPI used to the be the 3rd voice , now they are replaced by the young child, AAP. They are gone news, done and dusted, probably even in West Bengal. They don't even have a leader to take them forward. 3rd front is a mirage for these parties, let them have their moment. Jaya is doing a wise thing staying away from Modi right now, she needs to win seats before she plays the bargaining chip.  Just because there is little flirtation with CPI , doesn't mean they are sticking with the ideology. Relax, would you believe the rumor of the day , that NCP is aligning itself with Modi?

See, Kejriwal's ideology or the image is corruption campaign, he will stick to it. Mr Bird, it is good he is not forcing his views on us, a regional party with no visible influence in terms of decision making cannot make callous statements which would give a wrong signal to the people and the foreign press. I would rather him politely turn down the sensitive questions which pertain to National security and diplomacy, that is Indian govt.'s job and they should do it. No other CM in this country is ever pulled out and asked for its comments so why corner Kejriwal. I like how he side-stepped, , the Pakistani journalist would have been disappointed by not getting his views on Kashmir, or border issues but I feel good that here is a leader who understands what is under his jurisdiction and what is now and is not getting the verbal diarrhea get the better of him. 
I don't want him as PM nor is he in a position to consider himself one, all I want to see is him getting BSP, SP, CPI votes. This would be closer to a tri-party system.

If BJP get anything above 200, they are forming a stable govt . Thats about it.


The following 2 member(s) liked the above post:

mr.asskrystal_watz

mr.ass IF-Rockerz
mr.ass
mr.ass

Joined: 27 October 2008
Posts: 9469

Posted: 03 February 2014 at 6:50am | IP Logged
charming!!

think of the numbers this way.. I am being conservative here:

Union territories not including delhi: 5
arunachal:2
Assam: 4
Andhra: 3
bihar: 19
chattisgarh: 9
delhi: 5
goa: 1
guj: 22
himachal: 3
haryana:4
jharkhand: 9
jammu and kashmir: 1
kerala:1
karnataka:17
mahrashtra: 16
MP: 25
orissa: 2
punjab: 4
rajhasthan: 21
tamil nadu: 3
uttarakhand: 5
UP:23

total: 204

so is that realistic? take this as case 1.

now for case 2 :
if they get 9 more seats in bihar, 10 more seats in up, 2 more in delhi, 1 more in tamilnadu, 2 more in orissa, 1 more in andhra, 3 more in karnataka, 4 more in rajhasthan, 1 more in assam, 1 more in chattisgarh, 2 more in guj, 2 more in MP, then increase the tally of 204 to 242.

for case 2, which is easier:
242 for the bjp, abt 22 for shiv sena and akali dal, 2 from vaiko, 2 from pmk, 1 from agp give abt 27 more seats for bjp, which is 269. now 9 mp's from the north east will support them, helping them form the govt. then either of the andhra parties will join them giving them 10 - 12 seats. jaya might join.

for case 1:
if they get 204, include seats of allies: you get 231. now if jaya gives them 25, they'll have abt 256.
they'll get abt 9 seats from N. east.. so 265.

7 could be given by chandrababu, trs or some independents.

either way, bjp will form the govt if they get abt 200 seats.

The following 2 member(s) liked the above post:

-Cruiser-charminggenie

BirdieNumNum Goldie
BirdieNumNum
BirdieNumNum

Joined: 07 October 2012
Posts: 1125

Posted: 03 February 2014 at 12:08pm | IP Logged

@charming, @ass=>

it would be great if you guys are right, but consider:

1. 2009 elections, opinion polls and even exit polls had BJP/ NDA 25-30 seats higher than where they ended up. Looks like there is some sampling bias with their polls... You can check out http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_general_election,_2009#Exit_polls

2.  the state-wide numbers above for case 1 seem to be internally inconsistent. You're assuming SS+ Akalis get 22 seats as opposed to the 15 they got. You further have BJP getting 4 seats in Punjab, and i am assuming AD gets the other 4. So that means you are have NDA (Akalis + BJP) sweeping Punjab, a tall order!

3. assuming AD gets the 4 seats then you must be assuming that SS gets 18, as opposed to 11 seats last time around. If anything, SS seems to be a spent force. There are similar inconsistencies with other states too, am just pointing out a few...

problem with your numbers is that they look at NDA/ BJP in isolation, without considering other parties. You need to see where NDA gains come from state-wise and you'll see that even your case 1 might not materialize, forget about cases 2 through z. If NDA loses just1 seat from each of the states you have there, they'll end up well short of 200.

also, i dont think other alliance parties will be too keen on supporting Modi. After all the fight, they would rather have a dummy as PM so they can loot to their hearts content. If Modi came to power, these guys might actually have to do something constructive. Looting is their way of life, doing worthwhile things is not.LOL

The following 2 member(s) liked the above post:

-Cruiser-charminggenie

charminggenie IF-Stunnerz
charminggenie
charminggenie

Joined: 28 December 2007
Posts: 27506

Posted: 03 February 2014 at 1:07pm | IP Logged
@Mr Bird.
2004 was actually a PR backfire, NDA took lot of things to granted. The India shining campaign when the farmers were committing suicide and with A B. not keep on the next term as PM and the subtle pushing o Advani was not accepted by many. 2002 Gujarat riots were fresh in the minds and above all BJP themselves were not in power in main states.

@Bold  impacting the 2004 elections badly for NDA.

I am not bothered by Punjab, Cong with fresh agitation about 1984 seems to be out of the race. They don't have a big figure there. and all their seats would either go to AAP or Akali Dal. AD managed to avoid anti-incumbency in Punjab during state elections which are general indicator of good times in LS.

Maharashtra - Cong is out if Adarsh scam is to be accounted for. Too much Cong hate their. I think SS is reviving , with the dwindling of MNS influence and their vote going towards AAP. 
BJP seems to be the biggest gainer, who is their convenor, Gopinath Munde?  See how much Modi is canvassing their, seems BJP wants to be less dependent on SS too.  NCP is sufering from in fighting, if present state is to be seen. SS is still much sorted and the 2nd option for the voters.

I agree , I am mostly looking at the isolation. Because, I haven't seen any major allaince made by BJP . AD and SS are, at this point, synonym of BJP. Modi has not played the coalition cards as yet. Power makes them all greedy, BJD, Jaya, other smaller parties will come after the showing. 

I concede , I am not looking at things beyond BJP. NDA is non existence. I sincerely see BJP bring as the main alternative in most states barring Delhi, TN, Kerala, Assam, WB and Haryana.

Karnataka and Andhra are way more messier than the other states. And hence critical. Karnataka has Yedurappa tag and Andhra is too confusing.( not forgetting Telangana)

See what you see as the decline in NDA allies seat share, I read it as direct gain by BJP. See if in Maharashtra Cong is out. BJP is the number one option, if they don't perform too well, their rest of the seats would go to SS. Not AAP ( too mumbai centric).  Same with Punjab. 

I wondered about that option. But a non- Modi situation arises only when BJP falls short of 200 on its own. Or if they need support from Janta Dal ( Frankly, i feel them lossing Bihar badly to BJP). Worse, if AAP crosses the magic figure of 70 and has the govt forming power ( least likely).

Modi with 200 is pretty invincible.


 


The following 1 member(s) liked the above post:

BirdieNumNum

krystal_watz IF-Sizzlerz
krystal_watz
krystal_watz

Joined: 10 August 2009
Posts: 14170

Posted: 04 February 2014 at 6:02am | IP Logged
Genie: What do you think are the prospects for a strong "Third Front" to appear as is already being floated as an idea post the AIADMK-CPI-CPM alliance in TN?

Go to top

Forum Quick Jump

Forum Category / Channels
Forums

Debate Mansion Topic Index

  • Please login to check your Last 10 Topics posted

Disclaimer: All Logos and Pictures of various Channels, Shows, Artistes, Media Houses, Companies, Brands etc. belong to their respective owners, and are used to merely visually identify the Channels, Shows, Companies, Brands, etc. to the viewer. Incase of any issue please contact the webmaster.

Popular Channels :
Star Plus | Zee TV | Sony TV | Colors TV | SAB TV | Life OK

Quick Links :
Top 100 TV Celebrities | Top 100 Bollywood Celebs | About Us | Contact Us | Advertise | Forum Index