Posted: 03 February 2014 at 3:46am | IP Logged
Originally posted by BirdieNumNum
i think we are just throwing around numbers like 220 for BJP. It's on the higher side of opinion polls that were out recently. Also it assumes only 11 seats for AAP, and a low number for Congress. Yes, congress will get few takers, but it will get at least those 80 or so seats that are being projected. The have organization in states where no one else is competitive. Bottom-line, BJP/ NDA will have to get almost 150 seats they did not get last time. They'll have to sweep all the states they are competitive in to do that...
also, if NDA will have to rely on the likes of Jayalitha to see them through, then it's bad. It would be much better if those seats came from others directly to BJP, even from AAP. Country would be better off having a strong leader who is not hamstrung by corrupt alliance partners. AAP should focus more on getting its act together in Delhi and building on from there for the next time.
from latest reports, it seems jayalitha is teaming up with CPI. I mean what an absurd combination of ideologies. They are talking of bring peace and growth. Now when is the last time the commies brought about any growth with them? They ran bengal into the ground. Kolkata was quite the industrial center for India till the Basus oversaw their decline. Other commies elsewhere in the world too have bankrupted their economies (the former east bloc). Are we sure we want our central government to rely on partners who could even flirt with that stupid ideology?
other than the issue of corruption which kejriwal brings out of the proverbial hat whenever he is in trouble, they dont have anything in the way of policies. You ask us to be patient. But someone who has been a civil servant career all these years and who still does not have ideas of his own, a vision of his own, what good is that? The guy did not even have the foggiest notion as to how to reply to the pakistani journalists... and we want this guy to grow into the job at such a critical juncture for india? Terrible idea.
Last LS poll sin 2009, Cong on its own got around 206 seats and BJP was stuck with 116. Now 5 years after I see this swapping, if the anti incumbency of UPA is to be accounted for. With the lack of real opposition to UPA the only alternative is BJP.
Considering BJP has won recent polls in all the main states with considerable seats and UPA receiving drubbing , I don't see it to far fetched that 220 is unattainable for BJP , even if you play on the safe side 200 is their number. Anything + on 200, would be the real evidence of any Modi wave.
Now, as much as I want to idealistic and wishful, in the present political context, there is no chance a party can get full majority on its own due to the proliferation of various regional parties so as sad it is coalition govt is here to stay. As honest Modi can be, we cannot say that his partymen or his current alliances are non-corrupt, we are making the deal with the lesser evil ,here , so why art we bothered about Jaya, she will need Modi as much as the vice versa.
AAP is delhi centric, but for nay political party to have a survival or a long term existence , they need to capture few LS polls for being relevant. So to them , garnering attention and fighting LS polls is a way to safeguard their future. Let them be, they are eating UPA's share anyway, which were non- BJP from get go.
CPI , who? Sorry, they have been irrelavant since 2009.Last time combined seats were 30, I doubt they will be able to get that number even now. If the news shows are an indicator, CPI used to the be the 3rd voice , now they are replaced by the young child, AAP. They are gone news, done and dusted, probably even in West Bengal. They don't even have a leader to take them forward. 3rd front is a mirage for these parties, let them have their moment. Jaya is doing a wise thing staying away from Modi right now, she needs to win seats before she plays the bargaining chip. Just because there is little flirtation with CPI , doesn't mean they are sticking with the ideology. Relax, would you believe the rumor of the day , that NCP is aligning itself with Modi?
See, Kejriwal's ideology or the image is corruption campaign, he will stick to it. Mr Bird, it is good he is not forcing his views on us, a regional party with no visible influence in terms of decision making cannot make callous statements which would give a wrong signal to the people and the foreign press. I would rather him politely turn down the sensitive questions which pertain to National security and diplomacy, that is Indian govt.'s job and they should do it. No other CM in this country is ever pulled out and asked for its comments so why corner Kejriwal. I like how he side-stepped, , the Pakistani journalist would have been disappointed by not getting his views on Kashmir, or border issues but I feel good that here is a leader who understands what is under his jurisdiction and what is now and is not getting the verbal diarrhea get the better of him.
I don't want him as PM nor is he in a position to consider himself one, all I want to see is him getting BSP, SP, CPI votes. This would be closer to a tri-party system.
If BJP get anything above 200, they are forming a stable govt . Thats about it.