Posted: 31 January 2014 at 9:58am | IP Logged
Originally posted by mr.ass
so basically birdie, you're saying the next deve gowda is kejriwal?
but dude, didnt u just say it yourself?
theres a huge amt of parties pandering to the lower classes! mega vote split! and we have a popular capitalist leader. this isnt like the vp singh era where bjp itself was a socialist party. they are better established now.. so i think we will have bjp getting close to 240 all thanks to AAP! aap doesnt steal bjp's votes much.. and LS segment wise, bjp got 5 out of 7 LS seats!
The Cong or anti-BJP vote base, was never going to vote for Modi , any which way. AAP is catering to this section , it is probably weeding out SP/BSP/Cong votes. Hence I don't see them as a major threat to Modi. With AAP's proliferation, Cong seat share has reduced, even NCP is loosing the ground. No where on face AAP is threatening NDA's number.
Even if their campaign is more centered against him, they are basically trying to replace Cong or make a major dent to it.
BJP lost Delhi elections because of their own strategy, if you look at the figures their vote share increased. But their last minute Leadership problem and their appliancewith Akali Dal resulted in loss in assured seats. For a party which had no chance in Delhi for the last 15 years, they became too complacent to run the extra mile. Simple, AAP broke the Cong base, the economically backward vote.
Modi won't let this happen, he is too smart. he has kept the NDA very basic right now, with that structure , if he can mange 240 ( with BJP getting 210-220). He has a good shot of forming a govt. without too many coalition partners. Jaya in TN , BJD or even Mamta will bring him home.
I won't take these election trackers seriously now, we are still too far from LS polls.
Now for your other point. I have no problem with AAP representing the so called lower economic class, they have an equal right to be represented. Rather it will create an interesting dynamic in the Parliament where economic policies will differentiate BJP and AAP.
On Subsidiary, Mr Bird, don't read too much in their Delhi plan. AAP did exactly what BJP promised as well. But I hear you, they do tend to sound more "left" right now and that is not because they are being socialists but for a need to have a different narration to Modi. I would see their economic talk, if they were in power in some other state where they had full control to manage the financial situation like say Haryana or UP.
I detest reservation policy, but reserving seats for Delhi students actually is not different from what every other state is doing. This quota in education institutes needs to be addressed at a national level and should be echoed with one voice. The states should not interfere, hope Mr Modi does something about it.
@Mr A - NDA currently has- Shiv Sena, Akali Dal, C. Naidu and who else?