Posted: 30 December 2014 at 12:24pm | IP Logged
I'm predicting right now that the biggest grosser of 2015 in India will be Salman Khan's Bajrangi Bhaijaan. Here are a few reasons why:
-Since the last 10 years (2004-2014), the biggest grosser of the year has been a rotation of a film between Salman, SRK, Aamir, and Hritikh. Hritikh and Aamir have no film next year. SRK's Fan doesn't have the best of release periods while his other film Raees (if it releases next year) is not going to be very mass-appealing. That leaves us with Salman Khan, and with Eid proving to a better release period than Diwali, his Bajrangi Bhaijaan will gross more than his Prem Ratan Dhan Payo. Therefore, Salman Khan's Bajrangi Bhaijaan will be the biggest grosser of the year in 2015!
Given the fact that the film is directed by Kabir Khan (the last time he directed a Salman film ETT the film became a big Blockbuster and highest grosser of 2012) and given the fact that the film stars Salman Khan and Kareena Kapoor, Bajrangi Bhaijaan will likely do lifetime collections of 250+ crores net in India and be the biggest Blockbuster of the year! The film could also break the opening day record of HNY if it releases on the Eid holiday.
-Since 2008, the highest grosser of the year has been either the Eid release or the Christmas release. Eid in 2015 will see the release of Bajrangi Bhaijaan, while Christmas in 2015 will see the release of Bajirao Mastani, Tamasha, and maybe Raees. Bajirao Mastani and Tamasha are set to clash with each other on Christmas, which right away ensures that both films would get affected and neither film would become the highest grosser of the year. Even if one of them released solo on Christmas, they still wouldn't become highest grosser of the year. Ranveer Singh doesn't have the ability yet to take a film
to the near 250+ crore mark, whereas Tamasha may find limited appeal towards masses as Imitaz Ali the director is known for usually making multiplex films. As I already mentioned, Raees also has limited appeal towards masses. Therefore, Eid will win this year as the highest grossing film of the year (Bajrangi Bhaijaan).
A few other things I am predicting for 2015!
-As I said, SRK's Fan doesn't have the best of release periods, and here's why. The Independence Day release in 2014 was Singham Returns, and the film took a bumper 30+ crore opening and even had a decent/good WOM...but the film ended up finishing at just 140 crores lifetime. The problem is that there is just one major holiday (Independence Day) as Eid has been in July this year and next year. Without any other major holidays, and Jagga Jasoos releasing just 2 weeks later, Fan's lifetime collections will get nowhere the 300 crore mark, and maybe not even the 200 crore mark. Fan will also get the usual extreme Mixed WOM that other major Yashraj Films have gotten in recent times (Ek Tha Tiger, Jab Tak Hai Jaan, Dhoom 3, Gunday, etc).
-Salman Khan's Prem Ratan Dhan Payo will be considered an under performer at the box office. The youth will likely not take to the film from the name of the film itself, and Sooraj Bharjatya's old-school style of direction would likely not work with the urban youth of today. When Sooraj Bharjatiya did try to make a modern film (Mein Prem Ki Diwaani Hoon) the film flopped at the box office. Prem Ratan Dhan Payo will do well at the box office, but will be considered an under performer. Also, the last two big Diwali releases (Happy New Year and Krrish 3) ended their lifetime collections in the 180 crore range even though both films had WOM that was Mixed to Positive (according to BOI the lifetime collections were somewhere around 180 crores , although producer figures are 200+ crores which we can't deny completely as being wrong). Therefore, PRDP may also not touch the 200 crore mark according to BOI figures and even if the film does, it will just be a little over 200 crores but lifetime collections will be lower than Bajrangi Bhaijaan.
-Ranbir Kapoor and Ranveer Singh will be two of the top stars of the year. Bombay Velvet, Jagga Jasoos, Tamasha, Dil Dhadakne Do, and Bajirao Mastani are all potentially huge grossers, even though none of them will become the highest grosser of the year.
And lastly, no film releasing next year (including Bhajrangi Bhaijaan) will touch the lifetime collections of PK! PK is all set to reach the 300 crore mark soon, and no film will reach this 300 crore mark next year. PK had the terrific combination of Excellent WOM and perfect release period of Christmas period (which also includes New Years holidays and along with workers having holidays, students also having holidays from school, etc).The two films that I think do have potential to reach the 300 crore mark next are Aamir's next Christmas release (whenever it happens) and SRK's film that will be directed by Rohit Shetty (if this film also comes on a great release period like how Chennai Express came on Eid and broke the lifetime collection record of Aamir-Raju Hirani's 3 Idiots).
When 2015 is done, PK will remain the highest grosser of all time, and Dhoom 3 will likely remain the second highest grosser of all time. Bhajrangi Bhaijaan has an outside chance of beating Dhoom 3, but Dhoom 3 had more open weeks without major competition, it had Dhoom brand, etc.
Edited by srkat - 30 December 2014 at 12:53pm