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Arvind Kejriwal and AAP (Page 90)

BirdieNumNum Goldie
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Posted: 02 May 2014 at 2:16pm | IP Logged
^ i am not sure RJD and Paswan cater to the same crowd. I believe they are two separate blocs, with the Yadavs outnumbering the Paswans. The muslims are also flocking to congress-RJD, with JDU at best tied with NDA if not behind... If this is the case, then RJD-Congress might end up with 20+ seats with the rest split between BJP and JDU. Even if BJP gets 15 of these seats, they'd be starting 17 seats behind where the NDA was last time. That's a very heavy ask if you look at how much ground the NDA has to cover elsewhere to make the deficit from 159 last time all the way to 272. I have a bad feeling about Bihar. Some states are bimaru for a reason- they keep electing the same idiots... and i think lalu might be making a strong comeback. Bengal's the same way. Between the Commies and Mamtas, they are basically bankrupt... it's the choices their citzens made, but now they want money from the centre to be bailed out. If Bihar votes the way i think they will, they deserve every bit of the fodder crap Lalu will give them... 

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charminggenie

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Posted: 02 May 2014 at 3:13pm | IP Logged
Originally posted by BirdieNumNum

^ i am not sure RJD and Paswan cater to the same crowd. I believe they are two separate blocs, with the Yadavs outnumbering the Paswans. The muslims are also flocking to congress-RJD, with JDU at best tied with NDA if not behind... If this is the case, then RJD-Congress might end up with 20+ seats with the rest split between BJP and JDU. Even if BJP gets 15 of these seats, they'd be starting 17 seats behind where the NDA was last time. That's a very heavy ask if you look at how much ground the NDA has to cover elsewhere to make the deficit from 159 last time all the way to 272. I have a bad feeling about Bihar. Some states are bimaru for a reason- they keep electing the same idiots... and i think lalu might be making a strong comeback. Bengal's the same way. Between the Commies and Mamtas, they are basically bankrupt... it's the choices their citzens made, but now they want money from the centre to be bailed out. If Bihar votes the way i think they will, they deserve every bit of the fodder crap Lalu will give them... 

My mistake , RJD and Paswan cater to two different sectors. But his son and he will gain atleast 2-3 seats. Cong won't get any. 

We differ on JD(U), they won't get seats in double figure my guess. Him being part of NDA won't have made a difference, Nitish with Modi would have reduced their Muslim vote and him being away has pushed Lalu ahead. So the only two parties gaining are BJP and RJD. 

BJP has been pretty smart by not having a big alliance , hence focusing on improving their tally, I think they will get 20 odd seats which is a happy thing, considering they would have improved from their 14% vote share. 

Minority and Muslim votes were never going to be with BJP , so doesn't matter.

@On another note, how is Lalu allowed to campaign , isn't he serving a sentence, some EC we have?
mr.ass IF-Rockerz
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Posted: 02 May 2014 at 6:39pm | IP Logged
Originally posted by charminggenie

Compliment coming from you , Mr Bird, Muchas Gracias
Will just add couple of pointers to your AAP analysis - What exactly was the reason for fielding AK against NaMo in Varanasi, I think this move too backfired on him . 
After defeat would he come back to Delhi and how would he explain all his hopping around?
 Their campaign might not be as tainted as others but they also have played it dirty. Will AK accept JD(U)'s support in Varanasi?


Now to Bihar, think krystal asked me this a while back. 

Total 40 , 2009 - BJP-12, JD(U)- 20 with Lalu getting 6. 

This time with Nitish breaking away from NDA, I think his party is going to be sidelined to the 3rd position. RJD is rather than affecting BJP much is going to break JD(U) vote-bank.  JD(U), RJD and Paswan all cater to the same voting segment, hence there will be a good chance of them cutting each other's vote and BJP might sneak away with few .
2 more voting phases are still to happen and if reports are to be believed Modi is concentrating and returning back to Bihar. 

I see BJP getting anything around 20 and RJD doubling it's previous tally. The biggest loss would be of JD(U). Paswan is going to play the role of party-popper for UPA, if he wins 3-4 seats, more power to NDA. 




for some reason, I think people are fed up with both lalu and nitish and want modi. I think nitish will cut into the vote base of jdu but only by so much, given he's a criminal and sympathy can get you only so much. modi is probably going to get 25 - 27, mark my words! dunno why im making such a bold prediction, but thats my opinion. this is balanced out by my less than optimistic UP prediction, people are saying 42 - 50 for bjp, im saying they wont cross 36! most likely 28 - 34 Smile

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Proud-India

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Posted: 02 May 2014 at 6:40pm | IP Logged
Originally posted by zorrro

Its strange that people should threaten the AAP supporters in Punjab if he is not seen as a serious contender
 
 


but based on ground reports AAP is doing well in punjab? also jaitley will lose. I am happy because jaitley and sushma only prevented subramanian swamy from getting the new delhi seat Big smile
mr.ass IF-Rockerz
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Posted: 02 May 2014 at 6:43pm | IP Logged
Originally posted by atominis

The record turnout in Punjab is due to what? I think AAP has definitely made an impact even though its chances of winning seats are less.



they might win 1 or 2 in punjab, 1 or 2 in delhi, 1 in bangalore and 1 in UP. they will cut urban votes of congress more. they will help bjp get extra 5 - 10 seats Smile

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atominisProud-India

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Posted: 02 May 2014 at 6:46pm | IP Logged
Originally posted by charminggenie

AAP has long lost its plot, I think resigning from CM's post signaled the alarm bells. Overambitious and lack of organizational skills affected them. The only way they would survive  is if they manage to recover the lost ground in Delhi and start building the base again. 
They still have loads of sympathizers and a vote base atleast in urban areas but the percentage has drastically decreased and whatever vote share they have right now is not enough to be converted into seats.

In any case, whoever thought they were ever in a position to mange anything above 30 was buying just the social hype not the ground reality. 


@Mr Bird and Mr A - thoughts on which way BJD will swing?





bjd will most likely abstain from vote or give outside support. wont join nda nor vote against it. probably amma and naveen will give 25 to 30 seats from the outside to modi Big smile
krystal_watz IF-Sizzlerz
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Posted: 02 May 2014 at 10:44pm | IP Logged
I don't think RJD's position is as good as before, they might have had a slight surge in the districts of Seemanchal, Araria, Purnia etc. but outside of those pockets, they don't command a pan-Bihar hold. This might sound stupid, but I predict not more than 7-10 seats for the Cong-RJD alliance.
-Believe- IF-Stunnerz
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Posted: 03 May 2014 at 2:01am | IP Logged
There are no winners when you're arguing to someone about Politics...Smile

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