Posted: 02 May 2014 at 3:13pm | IP Logged
Originally posted by BirdieNumNum
^ i am not sure RJD and Paswan cater to the same crowd. I believe they are two separate blocs, with the Yadavs outnumbering the Paswans. The muslims are also flocking to congress-RJD, with JDU at best tied with NDA if not behind... If this is the case, then RJD-Congress might end up with 20+ seats with the rest split between BJP and JDU. Even if BJP gets 15 of these seats, they'd be starting 17 seats behind where the NDA was last time. That's a very heavy ask if you look at how much ground the NDA has to cover elsewhere to make the deficit from 159 last time all the way to 272. I have a bad feeling about Bihar. Some states are bimaru for a reason- they keep electing the same idiots... and i think lalu might be making a strong comeback. Bengal's the same way. Between the Commies and Mamtas, they are basically bankrupt... it's the choices their citzens made, but now they want money from the centre to be bailed out. If Bihar votes the way i think they will, they deserve every bit of the fodder crap Lalu will give them...
My mistake , RJD and Paswan cater to two different sectors. But his son and he will gain atleast 2-3 seats. Cong won't get any.
We differ on JD(U), they won't get seats in double figure my guess. Him being part of NDA won't have made a difference, Nitish with Modi would have reduced their Muslim vote and him being away has pushed Lalu ahead. So the only two parties gaining are BJP and RJD.
BJP has been pretty smart by not having a big alliance , hence focusing on improving their tally, I think they will get 20 odd seats which is a happy thing, considering they would have improved from their 14% vote share.
Minority and Muslim votes were never going to be with BJP , so doesn't matter.
@On another note, how is Lalu allowed to campaign , isn't he serving a sentence, some EC we have?