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Exclusive: My BO predictions for JAB TAK HAI JAAN!

srkat Goldie
srkat
srkat

Joined: 22 November 2008
Posts: 2225

Posted: 10 November 2012 at 1:01am | IP Logged
CHANDNI. DEEWAR. WAQT. KABHIE KABHIE. DAAG. TRISHUL. SILSILA. LAMHE. DARR. DIL TO PAGAL HAI. VEER ZAARA. Films that people still remember, and still talk about till date. All done by one man: the one and only, the late,great, Mr. Yash Chopra.

Huge excitement was felt in mid-2011 when Yash Chopra announced that he will be directing another film. A film that would star some of the biggest stars in the country, like Shah Rukh Khan and Katrina Kaif. Anuskha Sharma was also announced to be apart of the cast. But, for a long period afterwards, nothing was being revealed about the film. Especially the title, which was kept a secret till just 2 months ago. The title of Yash Chopra's latest directorial venture was announced as JAB TAK HAI JAAN. Everyone felt sad when Yashji declared this to be his last film. Then, the unfortunate happened, and he passed away. The title of the film, ironically, said it all: Yash Chopra kept making films, as long as he lived...JAB TAK HAI JAAN, JAB TAK HAI JAAN.

The death of the legendary director made this film even bigger than it already was. Of course though, the film already generated tremendous curiosity even before Yashji passed away. The theatrical trailer received huge appreciation and broke records online. The "Challa" song came and made huge waves. AR Rehman doing the music also created buzz. And of course, the starcast says it all: Shah Rukh Khan. Katrina Kaif. Anuskha Sharma.

There are so many different topics that people have been talking about in relation to this film. One of them being, about the clash between JAB TAK HAI JAAN and SON OF SARDAAR. So much talk has been going on around which film will do better. The controversies over the screen count, etc made the talk even more spicier. One is a classy film (JAB TAK HAI JAAN) while the other is a massy film (SON OF SARDAAR).

 
Another big topic being discussed has been about SRK's current position in Bollywood. There was a time when SRK was the number one star in Bollywood, the baadshah. However, things changed when Aamir Khan did GHAJINI and 3 IDIOTS. When Salman Khan did WANTED, DABANNG, READY, BODYGUARD, and EK THA TIGER. When Akshay Kumar did HOUSEFULL 2 and ROWDY RATHORE. When Ajay Devgan did GOLMAAL 3, SINGHAM and BOL BACCHAN. And when Hritikh Roshan did ZINDAGI NA MILEGI DOBARA and especially AGNEEPATH. Although SRK's last two films, RA ONE and DON 2 did cross the 100 crore mark, they weren't up to the mark of the other films in terms of success. RA ONE received huge negativity and although was successful at the box office, it wasn't a clean HIT. DON 2 crossed the 100 crore mark and receieved appreciation, but it was only a HIT, not a Blockbuster. The big question has been, can the man who was instrumental in SRK's superstardom (Yash Chopra) be the one to bring SRK back to the "king" position in Bollywood?


So much talk. So much disccusion. 2 huge films. The excitement is in the air!


Talking about the promotions of the film (on television), JAB TAK HAI JAAN's promotion has been low-key style, in comparison to SON OF SARDAAR's promotion which have been more. JAB TAK HAI JAAN's promotion on Televison has been low-key. There have been no dialogue promos on tv, just song promos. They have also made sure that not much is revealed about the film. The theatrical trailer didn't reveal much about the story, and the song promos also have been basic. However, this type of low-key promotion has worked out really well in the past for SRK-YRF. Recall CHAK DE INDIA and RAB NE BANA DI JODI. The promotion of these two films was also low-key, and they both went on to become Blockbusters at the box office. Low-key promotion can be good because that way, you aren't making the audience expect the film to be greatest film ever made. Rather, the audience can be pleasantly surprised by how good the film is when they see it. Recall RA ONE. The film was promoted like no other, and it wasn't that bad of a film either, but due to the expectations created and the film falling short, the film had to face a lot of negativity and backlash.


As I mentioned before, JAB TAK HAI JAAN is a classy film, and for this reason, I'm sure that the film will do best at multiplexes and amongst the class audience. I think that the classes will like the film. However, on the other side, the masses may not like the film. The masses may find the film boring, and might prefer SON OF SARDAAR (a much massier film), and that could cause a bit of a problem for the collections of JAB TAK HAI JAAN. Also, another thing to note is that due to the fact that JAB TAK HAI JAAN is a serious, classy type of film, it may not find much repeat audiences, especially during Diwali days when it is all about celebrations and having fun. Also to note, the music of the film hasn't caught on in the way that the music of previous Yash Chopra had caught on. Although, the music may grow a lot on the audience after seeing the film. With all of this being said, if JAB TAK HAI JAAN is a well-made film (I think the film will find appreciation from classes), it will definitely do very well at the box office, especially at the multiplexes. Another thing going in favor of the film is that there is almost a zero chance of the film attracting any negativity, due to death of Mr Yash Chopra.

I would also like to make mention of Shah Rukh Khan related to the film. I feel that Shah Rukh Khan will receive appreciation for his performance in this film, especially since romance is what he is known to be best at. Also, he seems to be portraying two different roles in the film, and SRK has been known to be a very versatile actor, so I'm sure that he did the two roles very well in a way that the audience will appreciate him. After DARR/DIL TO PAGAL HAI/KUCH KUCH HOTA HAI  ka Rahul, DDLJ ka Raj, DEVDAS ka Devdas, VEER ZAARA ka Veer, CHAK DE INDIA ka Kabir Khan, RAB NE BANA DI JODI ka Surinder, MY NAME IS KHAN ka Rizwan Khan, there will be another one that the audience will remember: JAB TAK HAI JAAN ka Samar. He may get some awards for his performance in this film!

It is also being said that Katrina Kaif is supposed to be the highlight of the film. There is a possibility that Katrina will surprise many with her performance in the film. She will likely be appreciated for her performance.

Anushka Sharma has a bikini scene in the film apparently. Me and other males like me will all want to see that scene!

Now, to the box office business of the film. The opening, as well all know, will be HUGE. The Yash Chopra/SRK combination, the SRK/Katrina/Anushka combination, the Diwali period, the tremendous curiosity for the film...it will all translate into a tremendous opening. However, it must be noted that on the Diwali Day (Tuesday, November 13), the collections of the film will be affected due to pooja. But, from the 14th onwards, it will be a great period, especially on the 14th, where I feel JAB TAK HAI JAAN will do 20 crore+ that day. After the holiday period, I feel JAB TAK HAI JAAN will sustain strongly at multiplexes/amongst the class audience, but from November 30 onwards, Aamir Khan's TALAASH will make a huge dent on the business of JAB TAK HAI JAAN. Also, SON OF SARDAAR will dent the collections of JAB TAK HAI JAAN at mass-dominated areas, for the duration of it's run. Using my personal knowledge, I feel JAB TAJ HAI JAAN's opening will be best in places like Mumbai, West Bengal, and Mysore. Upon doing research, according to information I found online, it seems the opening will also be best in these places (in additon to the ones I mentioned): Delhi, Bihar, Nizam, Bangalore, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Pune,Kolkata, etc and more.

My Box Office predictions for JAB TAK HAI JAAN:
Opening Day: 15 crores net
Opening 6 Day Weekend: 95-100 crores net  range
Lifetime Collections: 165 crore net
Overall Box Office Verdict: Blockbuster


Will JAB TAK HAI JAAN/SON OF SARDAAR clash become the GADAR/LAGAAN of 2012, with both films becoming successful? There are very high chances!



Edited by srkat - 10 November 2012 at 1:15am

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SRK-BEBO IF-Dazzler
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Posted: 10 November 2012 at 1:04am | IP Logged
I think opening will be aoms thing arond 12 croes due to lesser screens/diwali and the clash.
 
 
nice analysis.
 
 

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glace-bleue

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Posted: 10 November 2012 at 1:09am | IP Logged

Most likely its going to be a blockbuster

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Too_Much

glace-bleue IF-Addictz
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Posted: 10 November 2012 at 1:17am | IP Logged
Thanks for the prediction...I was waiting for it as most of the times ur predictions are quite accurate...
 
I think the opening day won't go higher than 10 crores...because its Diwali...and most Hindus...won't go out to watch a movie that day...especially in the evening with Diwali Pooja and fireworks...and also SOS will be there too...
 
I am thinking maybe if it can go up to 150 cr. life time...it would be good...because Romance doesn't sell as much as the action/masala movies...I am happy with ur prediction...
 
Are u going to predict for SOS also??

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pria4eversaruu.Billu-Maammaaish.-SalShah4eva-

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Posted: 10 November 2012 at 1:17am | IP Logged
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-koiza- IF-Sizzlerz
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Posted: 10 November 2012 at 1:19am | IP Logged
i am just so excited that reading all this is giving me anxiety attacks- i am just keeping my fingers crossed- my lips are sealed now! 
you2 IF-Sizzlerz
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Posted: 10 November 2012 at 1:32am | IP Logged
I think 15 crore is highest non holiday collection so far without competition..
 
SOS seems to be a decent entertainer..exhibitors and trade is optimistic about it too..
 
Taran is right..Wednesday trend is all important for both films..
 
I will be happy with anything above 150 crore for JTHJ..
gilmores IF-Stunnerz
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Posted: 10 November 2012 at 1:37am | IP Logged
This was very interesting! Let'ssee what happens...

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