why don't people learn?

The Market Remains Smarter Than All:

By Gary Kaltbaum

it is not the news, it is not what the pundits say or think, it is not what the politicians say or think and it certainly not what the corporate chieftains say or think, it is what the market thinks. Why? The market is smarter than all of them.

WATCH THE MARKET! It has all the clues you need to tell you where to go.


n bear markets, the groups that lead the market down will go down farther than anyone could imagine. In 2000, it was TECH and INTERNET. In this bear market, it is HOUSING and FINANCIALS. Back in '07, I stated that FINANCIALS were going to be crushed, names like CITI and WAMU were going single digits with a few FINANCIALS going out of business. Recently, there has been many thrilled with the fact insiders were buying into the FINANCIALS. I laughed at this as these insiders were buying all the way down.In bear markets, the market forces the hand and ignores all opinions. Bear Stearns? The market knew the problems and forced it out of business. Lehman? Forced out by the market that knew. AIG? Forced out by the market that knew. FNM and FRE? Forced out by the market that knew...and on and on.

Wall Street lingo will not change. No matter what the market does, Wall Street will tell you:

"Don't worry! Everything is okay. It is a great company. It will come back"

"If you sell now, you will miss the upside!"

"If you miss the ten best days of the year, you will ruin your returns!"

"Cheap, value, cheap, value, cheap, value!"

"It's the bottom. No...it is the bottom. For real, it is the bottom. The bottom bottom bottom bottom bottom bottom bottom bottom bottom bottom bottom bottom."

"Capitulation...no, it's capitulation. Capitulation capitulation capitulation capitulation capitulation capitulation.

Wall street will continue to parade charlatan after charlatan in front of you. It will not matter how poorly they have done in the past, they will just continue to tell you what to do.

The final ingredient of a bear market...and especially of a bear market like we are going through now is...and read carefully ...WHEN A BEAR MARKET LIKE WHAT WE ARE SEEING ENDS, NO ONE WILL BE CALLING A BOTTOM. NO ONE WILL BELIEVE IT. NO ONE WILL WANT IN.

interesting topic.. will comeback later for more.. for now just want to quote Bernard Barunch

"The Main purpose of stock market is to make fools of as many men as possible"

Oh! to my fav! topic... "The Heifer Market/Bear Market"...  Res! for more...






Edited by night13 - 12 years ago

Originally posted by: monar

interesting topic.. will comeback later for more.. for now just want to quote Bernard Barunch

"The Main purpose of stock market is to make fools of as many men as possible"

which is good, if many men made money, the profits would be less. it's like asking for "equal power for all".

The Market is like a Beast, sometimes it goes wild and at times it gets tired and wants to sleep. At times it falls ill for prolonged periods.
Markets love to crash around the October/November periods. So the Beast is wounded then.
😆

I miss my broker !!! ...well played dear well played!!!

Originally posted by: Summer3

The Market is like a Beast, sometimes it goes wild and at times it gets tired and wants to sleep. At times it falls ill for prolonged periods.
Markets love to crash around the October/November periods. So the Beast is wounded then.
😆

yep, sleeping happens at the bottom and noisy sleep happens at the top. the market crashed around january to march I think.

Originally posted by: osama-bin-joe

yep, sleeping happens at the bottom and noisy sleep happens at the top. the market crashed around january to march I think.

In Singapore the market tends to rise during the Jan/Feb period which often they call it the Chinese New Year rally or the Capricorn effect. It could be becoz the Fund Managers tend to clear their positions before the yearend for Christmas Holidays and come back in Jan.

Originally posted by: osama-bin-joe

which is good, if many men made money, the profits would be less. it's like asking for "equal power for all".

that's what market is, loss of many, is profit of some or just one., In recent crunch the big giant crumbled, and no one could do anything. That said, people who lose money in market are the ones who are into market cause they think its some "magical" place to double their money, without knowing how things work and without doing proper research. They go with the flow, typical herd mentality and hence its not difficult for people like madoff or mehta to make fool of them. 

Originally posted by: monar

that's what market is, loss of many, is profit of some or just one., In recent crunch the big giant crumbled, and no one could do anything. That said, people who lose money in market are the ones who are into market cause they think its some "magical" place to double their money, without knowing how things work and without doing proper research. They go with the flow, typical herd mentality and hence its not difficult for people like madoff or mehta to make fool of them. 

LOL, the market is not really the fundamentals, but the level of optimism based on the fundamentals. yep, I've been able to lose less than .5% of my capital(abt 24 - 28K) and then avoid the market while the market lost 7 -8%. Damn I'm good 😛 the market moves , so momentum is a good way to buy and sell I guess.

markets move in cycles. mehta was a giant fool himself, assuming a bull run would continue forever, nowadays bull runs don't go past 2 -3 years. in a developing economy like India's, the bear market might last a lot less, as the optimism doesn't really get smashed. Already after a decline the market looks like it's basing(we don't know if it'll break above or break down, though)

madoff got away with it though. Still worth millions. 😲

nowadays technicians are pretty vunerable. Those damn stock operators keep playin it cheap with their damn false signals. I avoided ITC when it broke out at 193, and yep, as I had guessed, it fell back down. 😆 but then again, it's our fault, as false signals only happen in the direction opposite to the main trend.