Scared to death - Page 3

Risk assessment is a concept often used by engineers, insurance companies and public health authorities. But can the concept be applied to the common rat, that most mundane of urban vermin? According to a paper prepared by Dale E. Kaukeinen and Bruce A. Colvin, two independent pest management experts, it can.

In an 11-page research paper [pdf] financed by the pest-control industry, the two men looked at 32 large American cities and concluded that New York is the city most at risk of rodent infestations. (Some reportshave described this as a "rat attack." Mr. Colvin, in a phone interview, said he was not familiar with that term and called it an exaggeration.)

The findings were based on 14 criteria, including population size and density, poverty rates, extent of port and transit facilities, and city spending on housing, sewers, trash management and utilities. The researchers also took into account climatic factors, like total rainfall and days of sunshine.

After New York, the cities considered most at risk for rodent problems were Houston, Boston, Louisville, Ky., Philadelphia, Baltimore, Washington, Chicago, El Paso, Tex., and Milwaukee.

"Among the cites we looked at, the conditions in New York City are the most conducive to having a rodent problem now and a rodent problem in the future," said Mr. Colvin, who is based in Lynnfield, Mass. He said the city's age and high population density helped make it the top-ranked city.

Mr. Colvin said that he and Mr. Kaukeinen would submit the research for publication in a peer-reviewed journal. The study was paid for by d-CON, a manufacturer of mice and rat poisons.

In an article published last December, I chronicled the city's continuing efforts to control rodents in various city neighborhoods and profiled Robert M. Corrigan, one of the country's foremost rat experts, who leads a Rodent Academy for city employees.

Despite these efforts, the city's rat problem has persisted, exemplified, most notably, by the discovery in February of a horde of rats in a KFC/Taco Bell restaurant in Greenwich Village, which prompted the Health Department to implement several reforms in how it conducts inspections.